2018-02-23 紐約匯市─美元溫和上漲 本週亦走高

1.  2 月，美元密切追隨股市與債券殖利率走勢。股市於本月初大幅震盪後，已見回穩，殖利率本週自數年高點下滑，均對美元構成壓力。
   
   
   美國 10 年期債券殖利率下降 3 基點至 2.88%，持續轉弱。聖路易 Fed 銀行總裁布拉德週四對 Fed 今年將升息四次，表示懷疑，債券殖利率因而下滑。週三，殖利率則觸及四年高點，突破 2.95%，Fed 會議記錄顯示，決策官員相信美國經濟轉強，Fed 升息次數可能增加，殖利率因而走高。
2. 分析師告訴 CNBC 說，由於歐洲央行將縮減振興措施，歐洲經濟持續成長，且政治風險進一步消退，預期未來一年，歐元可望上漲至 1.30 美元。
   由於歐元區的通貨膨脹預期逐漸加劇，市場預期歐洲央行將逐步縮減量化寬鬆措施 (QE)。歐洲央行週四公布的會議記錄再度顯示，通貨膨脹已見加速上升。分析師因而預期，貨幣振興政策的需求已告結束。傳統上，升息有助推升其貨幣，因為有助引進資金流入該地區。儘管 Fed 將會升息，但美元的環境依舊疲弱，在義大利選舉風險過後，預期三個月內，歐元將上漲至 1.25 美元。歐洲央行於 3 月 8 日會議中，將改變 QE 立場，亦對歐元屬利多。」

3. Fed's Williams:Fed should hike rates relatively soon, in near future.

4. The US Dollar was in a painful bearish trend that saw as much as -12.3% wiped away, so the fact that USD/JPY see-sawed back-and-forth for much of 2017 indicates that a weak US Dollar was being at least partially offset by a weak Japanese Yen. Away from the Dollar, pairs like EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY put in significant bullish runs that saw fresh highs post in both markets.The forecast for the Yen will remain at bullish for next week

1. EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 36.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.73 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.056; price has moved 17.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.3% higher than yesterday and 15.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 7.3% higher from last week.
   
   
   We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.