2018-02-28 紐約匯市─鮑爾表態升息 美元上漲至二週高點

因擔憂美國通貨膨脹上升，Fed 升息較預期快速，全球匯市，股市與債市本月均受到衝擊。近幾個交易日，美國債券殖利率與美元均走高。週二，10 年期債券殖利率上升 5 基點至 2.91%。

美國利率上升，傾向推升美元，因能吸引外國投資，增加美元需求。

分析師說，鮑爾的談話並無意外，他坦言將持續讓利率緩慢正常化。看來他在持續葉倫的政策。

由於德國通貨膨脹低於預期，加上鮑爾的談話，歐元兌美元進一步下跌。

德國 2 月消費者物價指數下降 1.2% 至 15 個月低點。

The US Dollar index closed at its highest since January 23rd as Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress. Mr. Powell noted that his outlook for the economy has strengthened along with his confidence on inflation getting stronger. This probably led to the markets to believe that a fourth Fed rate hike may even be a possibility this year. Local government bond yields rallied.

Prospects of tightening credit in the US did not bode well for Wall Street. The S&P 500 declined around 1.27%, the most since February 8th. Meanwhile, anti-risk currencies such as the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc benefited while the sentiment-linked New Zealand and Australian Dollars suffered.

Prior to these developments, worse-than-expected German CPI data hurt the Euro. The preliminary estimate of Germany’s headline inflation rate was 1.4% year-over-year in February. That is the slowest pace of price growth since November 2016. We will see whether disinflation also plagues the single currency bloc when on Wednesday the Euro-Zone CPI estimates cross the wires.

2018-02-27 日元多頭的好消息 季節性資金回流有助升破105 vs LIBOR-OIS利差大反彈 投行觀點：美元跌勢有望告終

三菱東京日聯銀行表示，這次回流的資金包括出口支付、外國投資的息票利息以及來自出口商海外子公司的股息，通常在第 1 季，尤其是 2 月到 3 月中旬期間會引發日元買盤。

• 過去 4 年來，美元兌日元 1-3 月期間平均下跌 3.2%，,  
  該銀行全球市場研究負責人 Minori Uchida 指出，利差是影響貨幣流向的關鍵因素，但在利差未能影響現貨水平下，投資人資金流動正在轉向。

《Fxstreet》報導，雖然上週美元指數週線則是出現小幅反彈上揚收紅，週一 (26 日) 美元指數則小幅下跌 0.10% 至 89.67 點，再度在 90 點大關門前止步，但一些投資銀行正認為，美元指數的連續性下跌，很可能將要出現停止。

西太平洋銀行 (WestPac) 分析師 Sean Callow 週一 (26 日) 表示，考量到聯準會 (Fed) 繼續維持升息循環拉升短期利率，這對美元來說，將提供一定的支撐力量。

另一方面，從 LIBOR-OIS 利差觀察，近期 LIBOR-OIS 利差亦是出現大幅反彈，直逼 2016 年前高水平，顯示在實體金融市場之中，美元的流動性正開始收縮，銀行對於美元的借貸意願，已轉向保守。

20180-02-26 美元維持穩定 外匯投機者連3周減少淨空單

• 美元近來走勢穩定，而 CFTC 持倉數據也顯示，大型交易商及外匯投機者已經連續 3 周減少對美元的看跌空單。

• 關於貨幣政策路徑，目前，市場普遍認為，鮑威爾將在國會聽證會上強調 Fed 逐步收緊貨幣政策的必要性。假如鮑威爾確認年內 Fed 將升息 3-4 次，將推動美元上漲。如果鮑威爾的言論相對溫和，沒有談及具體的 Fed 升息次數，投資者可能會認為這是股市和風險貨幣進一步上漲的信號。美元上周兌 G10 貨幣全線上漲，美元指數過去 4 週裡第 3 週上漲。分析人士說，由於美國近期公佈的資料強勁，他有可能採取強硬立場。若果真如此，對於美元將是一個好消息

• Asian stocks were all in the green as Monday’s session wound down
• A strong Wall Street Friday and hopes for no ratcheting up of rate-hike prospects from new Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell both helped
• The US Dollar slipped back on lower Treasury yields

2018-02-23 紐約匯市─美元溫和上漲 本週亦走高

1.  2 月，美元密切追隨股市與債券殖利率走勢。股市於本月初大幅震盪後，已見回穩，殖利率本週自數年高點下滑，均對美元構成壓力。
   
   
   美國 10 年期債券殖利率下降 3 基點至 2.88%，持續轉弱。聖路易 Fed 銀行總裁布拉德週四對 Fed 今年將升息四次，表示懷疑，債券殖利率因而下滑。週三，殖利率則觸及四年高點，突破 2.95%，Fed 會議記錄顯示，決策官員相信美國經濟轉強，Fed 升息次數可能增加，殖利率因而走高。
2. 分析師告訴 CNBC 說，由於歐洲央行將縮減振興措施，歐洲經濟持續成長，且政治風險進一步消退，預期未來一年，歐元可望上漲至 1.30 美元。
   由於歐元區的通貨膨脹預期逐漸加劇，市場預期歐洲央行將逐步縮減量化寬鬆措施 (QE)。歐洲央行週四公布的會議記錄再度顯示，通貨膨脹已見加速上升。分析師因而預期，貨幣振興政策的需求已告結束。傳統上，升息有助推升其貨幣，因為有助引進資金流入該地區。儘管 Fed 將會升息，但美元的環境依舊疲弱，在義大利選舉風險過後，預期三個月內，歐元將上漲至 1.25 美元。歐洲央行於 3 月 8 日會議中，將改變 QE 立場，亦對歐元屬利多。」

3. Fed's Williams:Fed should hike rates relatively soon, in near future.

4. The US Dollar was in a painful bearish trend that saw as much as -12.3% wiped away, so the fact that USD/JPY see-sawed back-and-forth for much of 2017 indicates that a weak US Dollar was being at least partially offset by a weak Japanese Yen. Away from the Dollar, pairs like EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY put in significant bullish runs that saw fresh highs post in both markets.The forecast for the Yen will remain at bullish for next week

1. EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 36.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.73 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.056; price has moved 17.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.3% higher than yesterday and 15.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 7.3% higher from last week.
   
   
   We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.