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2018年2月28日 星期三

2018-02-28 紐約匯市─鮑爾表態升息 美元上漲至二週高點

因擔憂美國通貨膨脹上升,Fed 升息較預期快速,全球匯市,股市與債市本月均受到衝擊。近幾個交易日,美國債券殖利率與美元均走高。週二,10 年期債券殖利率上升 5 基點至 2.91%。
美國利率上升,傾向推升美元,因能吸引外國投資,增加美元需求。
分析師說,鮑爾的談話並無意外,他坦言將持續讓利率緩慢正常化。看來他在持續葉倫的政策。
由於德國通貨膨脹低於預期,加上鮑爾的談話,歐元美元進一步下跌。
德國 2 月消費者物價指數下降 1.2% 至 15 個月低點。

The US Dollar index closed at its highest since January 23rd as Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress. Mr. Powell noted that his outlook for the economy has strengthened along with his confidence on inflation getting stronger. This probably led to the markets to believe that a fourth Fed rate hike may even be a possibility this year. Local government bond yields rallied.
Prospects of tightening credit in the US did not bode well for Wall Street. The S&P 500 declined around 1.27%, the most since February 8th. Meanwhile, anti-risk currencies such as the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc benefited while the sentiment-linked New Zealand and Australian Dollars suffered.
Prior to these developments, worse-than-expected German CPI data hurt the Euro. The preliminary estimate of Germany’s headline inflation rate was 1.4% year-over-year in February. That is the slowest pace of price growth since November 2016. We will see whether disinflation also plagues the single currency bloc when on Wednesday the Euro-Zone CPI estimates cross the wires.