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2018年3月9日 星期五

2018-03-09 加元的噩夢開始?外匯市場專家鐵口斷言:明年底前暴跌20%

However, with a pathway cleared for the United States’ key trading partners – Canada and Mexico – to be exempt from the steep tariffs, both the Canadian Dollar and the Mexican Peso outperformed the rest of the G10 currencies in the US afternoon session.

他說:「我們不認為加拿大經濟增長有許多結構性驅動因素,除了油價可能繼續保持在高位之外,但這不是你想要依賴的。」


2018年3月8日 星期四

2018-03-08 紐約匯市─ 美元反轉了柯恩辭職所引發的跌勢

- The Bank of Canada (BoC) left the the overnight lending rate unchanged at 1.25%, as was widely expected (rates markets were pricing in a 88% chance ahead of time).
A cautionary outlook on trade policy and low inflation led the BOC to hold interest rates at this meeting
Since the BoC released their a monetary policy report at the last meeting, no official report was released at this meeting. However, there was an official press release. We have noted the most important points below:
  • Inflation: Inflation is running close to the 2 per cent target and the Bank’s core measures of inflation have edged up, consistent with an economy operating near capacityInflation is fluctuating because of temporary factors related to gasoline, electricity, and minimum wages. ”
  • Trade Policy: “Global growth remains solid and broad-basedHowever, trade policy developments are an important and growing source of uncertainty for the global and Canadian outlooks.
  • Trade balance: “The gain in imports mainly reflected stronger business investment, which adds to the economy’s capacity.
  • Housing: “…softer [housing] data at the beginning of this year, indicate some pulling forward of demand ahead of new mortgage guidelines and other policy measures.
  • Houshold debt: “…household credit growth has decelerated for three consecutive months. The implications of the recent federal budget for the outlook for growth and inflation will be incorporated in the Bank’s April projection.
若美國課徵關稅,加拿大將受創最重,因加拿大是對美國出口鋼與鋁的最大出口國。
加拿大週三決議維持利率不變,並說近來貿易政策的發展,讓人擔憂全球與加拿大的經濟成長。

2018年3月7日 星期三

2018-03-07 紐約匯市─非美貨幣反彈 美元擴大跌幅

川普總統週二發表的保護主義言詞有點軟化,推升了加元與墨西哥披索。過去幾天,川普的關稅談話使得該二貨幣受到壓力,因墨西哥與加拿大出口大量鋼與鋁至美國。
週一,川普總統透過推文表示,除非公平的北美自由貿易協定 (NAFTA) 能夠達成,否則加拿大與墨西哥亦無法免除關稅。投資人認為這顯示,川普有意利用關稅做為修改貿易協定的策略,美國本週不太可能實施鋼與鋁的進口關稅。
Canada Finance Minister Morneau says Canada will be firm in its response to US steel tariffs if necessary

The BoC may sound more cautious this time around as U.S. President Donald Trump unveils a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum, and the accompanying statement may trigger a bearish reaction in the Canadian dollar if the central bank shows a greater willingness to carry the current policy into the second-half of 2018.

But the ongoing renegotiations of NAFTA combined with the intensification of protectionist rhetoric from the Trump administration gives the BOC ample reason to suggest it will remain neutral for the foreseeable future. Coming into today, rate hike odds for a second hike in the first half of 2018 have fallen to 60%. There may be further room for weakness in the CAD-crosses should these odds fall further.

2018年3月6日 星期二

2018-03-06 紐約匯市─英國脫歐過渡協定即將達成 英鎊上漲 美元回檔

川普上週公布新的關稅,並說貿易戰很好,美國可輕易獲勝。美元因而於上週四與週五連續二天下跌。週一,川普再發推文指出,除非簽署新的 NAFTA 協定,否則加拿大與墨西哥亦將面臨新的關稅。
在英國,梅伊在國會說,英國脫歐過渡協定即將達成,她有信心其餘的歧見亦可獲得解決。英鎊美元因而反轉跌勢,價位上揚。

義大利大選沒有明顯贏家,反傳統黨派支持度增加,歐元早場下跌。但隨後因美元回檔,歐元反彈。

• Oil prices have held bouyant, but Canada's benefit has been curbed due to the glut of the commmodity and a record US output • Now, protectionism is the Canadian Dollar's greatest risk with NAFTA renegotiations and US tariffs which will exact broader pressure


 While there are a number of inherent and local issues, the global problems are far more troublesome. It began in earnest with commodities. Though the price of many natural resources the country ships have risen, the appetite for Canada's exports have not necessarily kept pace. A good example is oil. Where the country is a profound exporter of the commodity and the largest foreign source for the United States, that particular trade partner has ramped up its own domestic production which has influenced the dynamic. A greater issue is the rise of protectionism - trade oriented countries rarely win in such situation. The re-negotiation of NAFTA has been ongoing for some time, and those conducting the discussions have reported slow or little progress. This has grown far more burdensome with the recent tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump. A 25 percent tariff on all steel imports and 10 percent for all aluminum into the US is perhaps targeted at particularly flagrant rule breakers, but they most prominently hurt Canada who is the United States' largest supplier of both.

2018年3月5日 星期一

2018-03-05 美元弱、台股開漲新台幣早盤續升觸29.25

So far this month, JPY has been the best performing major vs. USD with +3.23% total-returns while CAD has been the worst with -2.54%.

US President Donald Trump shocked global markets yesterday by announcing his intention to introduce a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum. The US Dollar was slammed across the board alongside US equity markets amid fears of trade wars emerging. It’s important for traders to understand the economic significance of tariffs and how they impact economies.

Dollar advances to highest level since mid-December as the Loonie comes under pressure from heightened trade tensions

2018年3月3日 星期六

2018-03-03 Politics in Focus for Global Markets , 關稅引發全球貿易戰擔憂 美元連二天下跌

The US Dollar wiped-out early week gains after talk of tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum gripped markets’ attention. This obscured the earlier testimony from new Fed Chair Jerome Powell, when he talked down the ‘Fed Put’ while hinting towards the possibility of four hikes out of the US this year.

川普總統說,美國將於下週對鋼與鋁進口課徵關稅。貿易戰擔憂促使投資人賣出美元美元週五連續第二天下跌。


日元上漲,亦對美元構成壓力。日本央行總裁黑田東彥說,央行將開始考慮於 2019 年縮減量化寬鬆計畫。


其他國家可能課徵報復性關稅,影響美國出口,減緩經濟成長,對美元屬利空。

2018年3月2日 星期五

2018-03-02 Asia AM Digest: USD Falls as Powell Testifies, Trump Plans Tariff

The US Dollar unperformed on Thursday and the S&P 500 tumbled 1.33%, falling to its lowest level in more than two weeks. Greenback’s decline began with a testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell to the Senate Banking Committee. There, he said that there is “no strong evidence of a decisive move up in wages”. Unlike what had happened at his testimony to congress on Tuesday, this time Fed rate hike expectations fell.
A couple of hours later, US President Donald Trump announced that the country will impose tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminum. Indexes such as the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225almost immediately tumbled, but the US Dollar remained resilient. It was not until later that the EU said that it will “react firmly to Trump’s tariffs” that the currency resumed its decline, and the Euro gained. As we have mentioned before, tariffs are good in theory but terrible in practice as it often leads to political artifice.
Sentiment-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian Dollars suffered amidst the plunge in stocks as a result of the tariff developments in the world’s largest economy. 

日本央行行長黑田東彥周五說,該行將在始於 2019 年 4 月的財政年度前後開始考慮如何退出其大規模貨幣刺激計畫。受此影響,日圓飆升。


  • Canadian Dollar drops alongside commodities and risk-sentiment as US Dollar gains

2018年3月1日 星期四

2018-03-01 紐約匯市─美元持續Fed帶動的漲勢 未在意GDP報告

這位新任 Fed 主席週二並表示,他認為經濟展望已經轉強。該談話支撑了美元走強,也使得債券殖利率上揚,美國股市則下挫。
分析師說,鮑爾對美國經濟的樂觀評估再度推升了美元上漲。他也相信通貨膨脹將上升至 Fed 的 2% 目標。現在工資亦見成長。
經濟數據方面,美國今日公布第四季 GDP 由上升 2.6% 小
幅下修至上升 2.5%。


Earlier in the day, the Canadian Dollar declined as gasoline inventories increased more than expected. The increase in supply here also negatively affected crude oil prices which fell to about a 1-week low.

周三美元指數大漲,推升 2 月全月漲幅達 1.7%,G10 國家貨幣中僅次於日元,由於 2 月初全球市場震盪,具避險概念的日元漲幅 2.2%。

荷銀(Robobank)高級外匯策略師 Jane Foley 指出,美元此番上漲是否來到長期跌勢的轉折點,目前斷言為時尚早,因為美元自身還面臨許多不利因素,包括全球其它主要央行縮減貨幣刺激、美國雙赤字規模擴大、特朗普政府貿易主義立場等等。

Leuthold 高級分析師兼聯合投資組合經理 Chun Wang 更推翻美元進一步走強的看法,認為隨著美國資產相對於其它 G10 經濟體的吸引力和相對貨幣政策立場已經轉向,美元可能下滑,甚至預估 2018 年跌幅將達 6%。