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2018年3月9日 星期五

2018-03-09 加元的噩夢開始?外匯市場專家鐵口斷言:明年底前暴跌20%

However, with a pathway cleared for the United States’ key trading partners – Canada and Mexico – to be exempt from the steep tariffs, both the Canadian Dollar and the Mexican Peso outperformed the rest of the G10 currencies in the US afternoon session.

他說:「我們不認為加拿大經濟增長有許多結構性驅動因素,除了油價可能繼續保持在高位之外,但這不是你想要依賴的。」


2018年3月8日 星期四

2018-03-08 紐約匯市─ 美元反轉了柯恩辭職所引發的跌勢

- The Bank of Canada (BoC) left the the overnight lending rate unchanged at 1.25%, as was widely expected (rates markets were pricing in a 88% chance ahead of time).
A cautionary outlook on trade policy and low inflation led the BOC to hold interest rates at this meeting
Since the BoC released their a monetary policy report at the last meeting, no official report was released at this meeting. However, there was an official press release. We have noted the most important points below:
  • Inflation: Inflation is running close to the 2 per cent target and the Bank’s core measures of inflation have edged up, consistent with an economy operating near capacityInflation is fluctuating because of temporary factors related to gasoline, electricity, and minimum wages. ”
  • Trade Policy: “Global growth remains solid and broad-basedHowever, trade policy developments are an important and growing source of uncertainty for the global and Canadian outlooks.
  • Trade balance: “The gain in imports mainly reflected stronger business investment, which adds to the economy’s capacity.
  • Housing: “…softer [housing] data at the beginning of this year, indicate some pulling forward of demand ahead of new mortgage guidelines and other policy measures.
  • Houshold debt: “…household credit growth has decelerated for three consecutive months. The implications of the recent federal budget for the outlook for growth and inflation will be incorporated in the Bank’s April projection.
若美國課徵關稅,加拿大將受創最重,因加拿大是對美國出口鋼與鋁的最大出口國。
加拿大週三決議維持利率不變,並說近來貿易政策的發展,讓人擔憂全球與加拿大的經濟成長。

2018年3月7日 星期三

2018-03-07 紐約匯市─非美貨幣反彈 美元擴大跌幅

川普總統週二發表的保護主義言詞有點軟化,推升了加元與墨西哥披索。過去幾天,川普的關稅談話使得該二貨幣受到壓力,因墨西哥與加拿大出口大量鋼與鋁至美國。
週一,川普總統透過推文表示,除非公平的北美自由貿易協定 (NAFTA) 能夠達成,否則加拿大與墨西哥亦無法免除關稅。投資人認為這顯示,川普有意利用關稅做為修改貿易協定的策略,美國本週不太可能實施鋼與鋁的進口關稅。
Canada Finance Minister Morneau says Canada will be firm in its response to US steel tariffs if necessary

The BoC may sound more cautious this time around as U.S. President Donald Trump unveils a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum, and the accompanying statement may trigger a bearish reaction in the Canadian dollar if the central bank shows a greater willingness to carry the current policy into the second-half of 2018.

But the ongoing renegotiations of NAFTA combined with the intensification of protectionist rhetoric from the Trump administration gives the BOC ample reason to suggest it will remain neutral for the foreseeable future. Coming into today, rate hike odds for a second hike in the first half of 2018 have fallen to 60%. There may be further room for weakness in the CAD-crosses should these odds fall further.

2018年3月6日 星期二

2018-03-06 紐約匯市─英國脫歐過渡協定即將達成 英鎊上漲 美元回檔

川普上週公布新的關稅,並說貿易戰很好,美國可輕易獲勝。美元因而於上週四與週五連續二天下跌。週一,川普再發推文指出,除非簽署新的 NAFTA 協定,否則加拿大與墨西哥亦將面臨新的關稅。
在英國,梅伊在國會說,英國脫歐過渡協定即將達成,她有信心其餘的歧見亦可獲得解決。英鎊美元因而反轉跌勢,價位上揚。

義大利大選沒有明顯贏家,反傳統黨派支持度增加,歐元早場下跌。但隨後因美元回檔,歐元反彈。

• Oil prices have held bouyant, but Canada's benefit has been curbed due to the glut of the commmodity and a record US output • Now, protectionism is the Canadian Dollar's greatest risk with NAFTA renegotiations and US tariffs which will exact broader pressure


 While there are a number of inherent and local issues, the global problems are far more troublesome. It began in earnest with commodities. Though the price of many natural resources the country ships have risen, the appetite for Canada's exports have not necessarily kept pace. A good example is oil. Where the country is a profound exporter of the commodity and the largest foreign source for the United States, that particular trade partner has ramped up its own domestic production which has influenced the dynamic. A greater issue is the rise of protectionism - trade oriented countries rarely win in such situation. The re-negotiation of NAFTA has been ongoing for some time, and those conducting the discussions have reported slow or little progress. This has grown far more burdensome with the recent tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump. A 25 percent tariff on all steel imports and 10 percent for all aluminum into the US is perhaps targeted at particularly flagrant rule breakers, but they most prominently hurt Canada who is the United States' largest supplier of both.

2018年3月5日 星期一

2018-03-05 美元弱、台股開漲新台幣早盤續升觸29.25

So far this month, JPY has been the best performing major vs. USD with +3.23% total-returns while CAD has been the worst with -2.54%.

US President Donald Trump shocked global markets yesterday by announcing his intention to introduce a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum. The US Dollar was slammed across the board alongside US equity markets amid fears of trade wars emerging. It’s important for traders to understand the economic significance of tariffs and how they impact economies.

Dollar advances to highest level since mid-December as the Loonie comes under pressure from heightened trade tensions

2018年3月3日 星期六

2018-03-03 Politics in Focus for Global Markets , 關稅引發全球貿易戰擔憂 美元連二天下跌

The US Dollar wiped-out early week gains after talk of tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum gripped markets’ attention. This obscured the earlier testimony from new Fed Chair Jerome Powell, when he talked down the ‘Fed Put’ while hinting towards the possibility of four hikes out of the US this year.

川普總統說,美國將於下週對鋼與鋁進口課徵關稅。貿易戰擔憂促使投資人賣出美元美元週五連續第二天下跌。


日元上漲,亦對美元構成壓力。日本央行總裁黑田東彥說,央行將開始考慮於 2019 年縮減量化寬鬆計畫。


其他國家可能課徵報復性關稅,影響美國出口,減緩經濟成長,對美元屬利空。

2018年3月2日 星期五

2018-03-02 Asia AM Digest: USD Falls as Powell Testifies, Trump Plans Tariff

The US Dollar unperformed on Thursday and the S&P 500 tumbled 1.33%, falling to its lowest level in more than two weeks. Greenback’s decline began with a testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell to the Senate Banking Committee. There, he said that there is “no strong evidence of a decisive move up in wages”. Unlike what had happened at his testimony to congress on Tuesday, this time Fed rate hike expectations fell.
A couple of hours later, US President Donald Trump announced that the country will impose tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminum. Indexes such as the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225almost immediately tumbled, but the US Dollar remained resilient. It was not until later that the EU said that it will “react firmly to Trump’s tariffs” that the currency resumed its decline, and the Euro gained. As we have mentioned before, tariffs are good in theory but terrible in practice as it often leads to political artifice.
Sentiment-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian Dollars suffered amidst the plunge in stocks as a result of the tariff developments in the world’s largest economy. 

日本央行行長黑田東彥周五說,該行將在始於 2019 年 4 月的財政年度前後開始考慮如何退出其大規模貨幣刺激計畫。受此影響,日圓飆升。


  • Canadian Dollar drops alongside commodities and risk-sentiment as US Dollar gains

2018年3月1日 星期四

2018-03-01 紐約匯市─美元持續Fed帶動的漲勢 未在意GDP報告

這位新任 Fed 主席週二並表示,他認為經濟展望已經轉強。該談話支撑了美元走強,也使得債券殖利率上揚,美國股市則下挫。
分析師說,鮑爾對美國經濟的樂觀評估再度推升了美元上漲。他也相信通貨膨脹將上升至 Fed 的 2% 目標。現在工資亦見成長。
經濟數據方面,美國今日公布第四季 GDP 由上升 2.6% 小
幅下修至上升 2.5%。


Earlier in the day, the Canadian Dollar declined as gasoline inventories increased more than expected. The increase in supply here also negatively affected crude oil prices which fell to about a 1-week low.

周三美元指數大漲,推升 2 月全月漲幅達 1.7%,G10 國家貨幣中僅次於日元,由於 2 月初全球市場震盪,具避險概念的日元漲幅 2.2%。

荷銀(Robobank)高級外匯策略師 Jane Foley 指出,美元此番上漲是否來到長期跌勢的轉折點,目前斷言為時尚早,因為美元自身還面臨許多不利因素,包括全球其它主要央行縮減貨幣刺激、美國雙赤字規模擴大、特朗普政府貿易主義立場等等。

Leuthold 高級分析師兼聯合投資組合經理 Chun Wang 更推翻美元進一步走強的看法,認為隨著美國資產相對於其它 G10 經濟體的吸引力和相對貨幣政策立場已經轉向,美元可能下滑,甚至預估 2018 年跌幅將達 6%。

2018年2月28日 星期三

2018-02-28 紐約匯市─鮑爾表態升息 美元上漲至二週高點

因擔憂美國通貨膨脹上升,Fed 升息較預期快速,全球匯市,股市與債市本月均受到衝擊。近幾個交易日,美國債券殖利率與美元均走高。週二,10 年期債券殖利率上升 5 基點至 2.91%。
美國利率上升,傾向推升美元,因能吸引外國投資,增加美元需求。
分析師說,鮑爾的談話並無意外,他坦言將持續讓利率緩慢正常化。看來他在持續葉倫的政策。
由於德國通貨膨脹低於預期,加上鮑爾的談話,歐元美元進一步下跌。
德國 2 月消費者物價指數下降 1.2% 至 15 個月低點。

The US Dollar index closed at its highest since January 23rd as Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress. Mr. Powell noted that his outlook for the economy has strengthened along with his confidence on inflation getting stronger. This probably led to the markets to believe that a fourth Fed rate hike may even be a possibility this year. Local government bond yields rallied.
Prospects of tightening credit in the US did not bode well for Wall Street. The S&P 500 declined around 1.27%, the most since February 8th. Meanwhile, anti-risk currencies such as the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc benefited while the sentiment-linked New Zealand and Australian Dollars suffered.
Prior to these developments, worse-than-expected German CPI data hurt the Euro. The preliminary estimate of Germany’s headline inflation rate was 1.4% year-over-year in February. That is the slowest pace of price growth since November 2016. We will see whether disinflation also plagues the single currency bloc when on Wednesday the Euro-Zone CPI estimates cross the wires.

2018年2月27日 星期二

2018-02-27 日元多頭的好消息 季節性資金回流有助升破105 vs LIBOR-OIS利差大反彈 投行觀點:美元跌勢有望告終

三菱東京日聯銀行表示,這次回流的資金包括出口支付、外國投資的息票利息以及來自出口商海外子公司的股息,通常在第 1 季,尤其是 2 月到 3 月中旬期間會引發日元買盤。
  • 過去 4 年來,美元日元 1-3 月期間平均下跌 3.2%,,  
    該銀行全球市場研究負責人 Minori Uchida 指出,利差是影響貨幣流向的關鍵因素,但在利差未能影響現貨水平下,投資人資金流動正在轉向。

《Fxstreet》報導,雖然上週美元指數週線則是出現小幅反彈上揚收紅,週一 (26 日) 美元指數則小幅下跌 0.10% 至 89.67 點,再度在 90 點大關門前止步,但一些投資銀行正認為,美元指數的連續性下跌,很可能將要出現停止。
西太平洋銀行 (WestPac) 分析師 Sean Callow 週一 (26 日) 表示,考量到聯準會 (Fed) 繼續維持升息循環拉升短期利率,這對美元來說,將提供一定的支撐力量。
另一方面,從 LIBOR-OIS 利差觀察,近期 LIBOR-OIS 利差亦是出現大幅反彈,直逼 2016 年前高水平,顯示在實體金融市場之中,美元的流動性正開始收縮,銀行對於美元的借貸意願,已轉向保守。

2018年2月26日 星期一

20180-02-26 美元維持穩定 外匯投機者連3周減少淨空單


  • 美元近來走勢穩定,而 CFTC 持倉數據也顯示,大型交易商及外匯投機者已經連續 3 周減少對美元的看跌空單。

  • 關於貨幣政策路徑,目前,市場普遍認為,鮑威爾將在國會聽證會上強調 Fed 逐步收緊貨幣政策的必要性。假如鮑威爾確認年內 Fed 將升息 3-4 次,將推動美元上漲。如果鮑威爾的言論相對溫和,沒有談及具體的 Fed 升息次數,投資者可能會認為這是股市和風險貨幣進一步上漲的信號。美元上周兌 G10 貨幣全線上漲,美元指數過去 4 週裡第 3 週上漲。分析人士說,由於美國近期公佈的資料強勁,他有可能採取強硬立場。若果真如此,對於美元將是一個好消息


  • Asian stocks were all in the green as Monday’s session wound down
  • A strong Wall Street Friday and hopes for no ratcheting up of rate-hike prospects from new Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell both helped
  • The US Dollar slipped back on lower Treasury yields

2018年2月24日 星期六

2018-02-23 紐約匯市─美元溫和上漲 本週亦走高


  1.  2 月,美元密切追隨股市與債券殖利率走勢。股市於本月初大幅震盪後,已見回穩,殖利率本週自數年高點下滑,均對美元構成壓力。

    美國 10 年期債券殖利率下降 3 基點至 2.88%,持續轉弱。聖路易 Fed 銀行總裁布拉德週四對 Fed 今年將升息四次,表示懷疑,債券殖利率因而下滑。週三,殖利率則觸及四年高點,突破 2.95%,Fed 會議記錄顯示,決策官員相信美國經濟轉強,Fed 升息次數可能增加,殖利率因而走高。
  2. 分析師告訴 CNBC 說,由於歐洲央行將縮減振興措施,歐洲經濟持續成長,且政治風險進一步消退,預期未來一年,歐元可望上漲至 1.30 美元
    由於歐元區的通貨膨脹預期逐漸加劇,市場預期歐洲央行將逐步縮減量化寬鬆措施 (QE)。歐洲央行週四公布的會議記錄再度顯示,通貨膨脹已見加速上升。分析師因而預期,貨幣振興政策的需求已告結束。傳統上,升息有助推升其貨幣,因為有助引進資金流入該地區。儘管 Fed 將會升息,但美元的環境依舊疲弱,在義大利選舉風險過後,預期三個月內,歐元將上漲至 1.25 美元。歐洲央行於 3 月 8 日會議中,將改變 QE 立場,亦對歐元屬利多。」
  3. Fed's Williams:Fed should hike rates relatively soon, in near future.
  4. The US Dollar was in a painful bearish trend that saw as much as -12.3% wiped away, so the fact that USD/JPY see-sawed back-and-forth for much of 2017 indicates that a weak US Dollar was being at least partially offset by a weak Japanese Yen. Away from the Dollar, pairs like EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY put in significant bullish runs that saw fresh highs post in both markets.The forecast for the Yen will remain at bullish for next week


  1. EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 36.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.73 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.056; price has moved 17.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.3% higher than yesterday and 15.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 7.3% higher from last week.

    We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.